SHM Converge Scientific Abstract ePoster Gallery-Projecting the Future of Inpatient Care: National Shortages in the U.S. Hospital Medicine Workforce Through 2037.

Projecting the Future of Inpatient Care: National Shortages in the U.S. Hospital Medicine Workforce Through 2037.

Pdf Summary

This study projects the future of the U.S. hospitalist workforce from 2022 to 2037 using HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model. It estimates full-time equivalent supply and demand nationally, by state, and across metropolitan versus nonmetropolitan areas under two scenarios: status quo and reduced barriers to care.<br /><br />In 2022, the hospital medicine workforce included 40,810 FTEs, while demand ranged from 43,730 to 46,640 FTEs. By 2037, supply is projected to decline slightly to 38,700 FTEs, but demand is expected to rise sharply to 50,600–54,410 FTEs. This would create a national shortfall of about 11,900 to 15,710 hospitalists. Workforce adequacy is projected to fall from 93% in 2022 to 76% by 2037 under the status quo scenario.<br /><br />Geographic disparities are substantial. Metropolitan areas are projected to decline from 103% adequacy to 83%, while nonmetropolitan areas worsen from 55% to 36%. By 2037, only six states are expected to remain above workforce adequacy, indicating broad and worsening shortages.<br /><br />The study concludes that hospitalist shortages will grow significantly and are likely to disproportionately affect rural and underserved communities. The authors suggest policy responses such as increasing graduate medical education positions, improving physician retention, and expanding team-based care models to help reduce future workforce gaps.

Asset Subtitle

Sean Inzerillo

Meta Tag

Author List Georgios Toumbas, Julie Kanevsky, Konstantinos Margetis, Paul Mastrokostas, Sean Inzerillo

Category Research

Concept Hospitalist Workforce

Concept Supply-to-Demand Ratio

Concept Workforce Supply

Concept Workforce Demand

Concept Workforce Adequacy

Distinguished Finalist

Presenter Organization SUNY Downstate College of Medicine

Presenting Author Sean Inzerillo

Track Value in Hospital Medicine

Keywords

hospitalist workforce

U.S. hospitals

health workforce simulation

full-time equivalent

supply and demand

workforce shortage

state disparities

metropolitan areas

nonmetropolitan areas

graduate medical education

Hospitalist Workforce

Supply-to-Demand Ratio

Workforce Supply

Workforce Demand

Workforce Adequacy