SHM Converge Scientific Abstract ePoster Gallery-Projected U.S. Hospital Bed Shortage and Associated Excess Mortality: 2024-2034

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A UCLA/VA-led analysis projects that the U.S. will face a critical hospital bed shortage between 2031 and 2034 unless action is taken. The study uses U.S. Census population forecasts, 2019 hospitalization rates by age group, and national occupancy data through 2023 to estimate non-ICU hospital use from 2024 to 2034.<br /><br />Key findings:<br />- Post-pandemic hospital occupancy appears to have settled at a higher “steady state” of 74–77%, compared with 63–67% before COVID-19.<br />- Total hospitalizations are projected to rise from about 38.1 million in 2024 to 42.3 million in 2034.<br />- National occupancy is expected to reach the critical 85% threshold by 2031 for adult non-ICU beds and by 2034 for combined adult and pediatric non-ICU beds.<br /><br />The study also warns of mortality consequences if hospitals operate at 85% occupancy, which prior evidence links to a 2–5% increase in in-hospital deaths. Using Medicare mortality data, the authors estimate this could translate into 13,000 to 32,500 excess deaths per year among adults aged 65 and older starting in 2031.<br /><br />The paper argues that the shortage is being driven by both higher post-COVID occupancy and demographic change, especially the rapid growth of the older adult population. To prevent the crisis, the authors recommend expanding hospital capacity and reducing demand through better preventive care and new outpatient-based acute care models.

Asset Subtitle

Richard K. Leuchter

Meta Tag

Author List Benjo A. Delarmente, Catherine A. Sarkisian, Richard K. Leuchter, Sitaram Vangala, Yusuke Tsugawa

Category Research

Concept US Hospitalizations

Concept Hospital Occupancy

Concept Hospital Bed Shortage

Concept Population Aging

Concept Hospitalization Rate

Distinguished Non-Finalist

Presenter Organization David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA

Presenting Author Richard K. Leuchter

Track Outcomes Research

Keywords

hospital bed shortage

UCLA VA analysis

hospital occupancy

U.S. Census forecasts

non-ICU beds

post-pandemic steady state

hospitalizations

critical 85% threshold

excess deaths

older adult population

US Hospitalizations

Hospital Occupancy

Hospital Bed Shortage

Population Aging

Hospitalization Rate