SHM Converge Scientific Abstract ePoster Gallery-National Staffed Hospital Bed Shortage and the Impact on Critical U.S. Hospital Occupancy

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A recent U.S. projection warns of a critical hospital bed shortage by 2032 unless action is taken. The study estimates that post-COVID hospital occupancy has settled at about 75%, compared with 64% before the pandemic, leaving the system much closer to capacity. At the same time, the aging population will increase demand: adults 65 and older are expected to outnumber children between 2030 and 2034.<br /><br />Using Census population forecasts, 2019 hospitalization rates by age group, and national occupancy data, the authors projected non-ICU hospitalizations from 2025 to 2035. They estimate hospitalizations will rise from about 38.1 million in 2024 to 42.3 million in 2034. Under these trends, national occupancy would reach the 85% threshold associated with measurable increases in in-hospital mortality.<br /><br />The study projects that this 85% occupancy level will be reached by 2032 for adult non-ICU beds and by 2034 for adult and pediatric non-ICU beds. For adults age 65 and older, the resulting strain could cause an estimated 13,000 to 32,500 excess deaths per year starting in 2031.<br /><br />The authors conclude that preventing a severe bed shortage will require both expanding staffed hospital capacity and reducing avoidable hospital use. They recommend stronger preventive care and new outpatient-based models for treating acute conditions outside the hospital.

Asset Subtitle

Richard K. Leuchter

Meta Tag

Author List Benjo A. Delarmente, Catherine A. Sarkisian, Richard K. Leuchter, Sitaram Vangala, Yusuke Tsugawa

Category Research

Concept Hospital Bed Shortage

Concept Hospital Occupancy

Concept Adult Non-ICU Bed

Concept Population Aging

Concept Crowding Mortality

Distinguished Non-Finalist

Presenter Organization David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA

Presenting Author Richard K. Leuchter

Track Outcomes Research

Keywords

hospital bed shortage

hospital occupancy

aging population

hospital capacity

non-ICU beds

hospitalizations

U.S. healthcare

excess deaths

preventive care

outpatient care

Hospital Bed Shortage

Hospital Occupancy

Adult Non-ICU Bed

Population Aging

Crowding Mortality